Lawmakers will get chance to prove if GOP is good for cannabis

Is Republican control of the U.S. government better for marijuana reform than a Democrat-led administration, and have statewide adult-use cannabis legalization efforts simply maxed out?

After the GOP’s decisive nationwide victory on Tuesday sent former President Donald Trump back to the White House – and delivered control of the Senate to Republicans – the $32 billion U.S. legal marijuana industry is about to find out.

Three decisive defeats for adult-use legalization on Election Day mean reform efforts are likely to shift away from individual states and toward Washington, D.C., where Democratic lawmakers have traditionally been more consistent backers of marijuana bills.

There, advocates will have to present a newly united front if they hope to win over conservative lawmakers.

“This is not the ideal situation – and certainly not what we were hoping for – but we are in the position that we are going to be able to get some stuff done next year,” David Culver, the director of government affairs at the U.S. Cannabis Council, a D.C.-based lobbying group, said Wednesday during a webinar hosted by MJBizDaily.

Defeats warn of potential shift

On the one hand, Trump’s endorsement of state marijuana legalization and the Biden administration’s marijuana rescheduling process provide some cause for optimism.

And medical cannabis is still a winner: Voters in Nebraska overwhelmingly approved medical marijuana, though a pending court challenge means it’s not yet known if the votes to establish a state-regulated market will count.

In Florida, enough voters rejected an adult-use initiative to defeat a marijuana industry-funded ballot measure – one of the most expensive in U.S. history – and hand a victory to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who opposed the measure.

Voters in both North Dakota and South Dakota said no – again – to adult-use legalization measures also funded by the industry.

Cannabis ballot measures rejected

Election Day defeats raise serious questions about when marijuana legalization campaigns might return to states where they lost and whether an industry dealt such costly rebukes will be able to fund subsequent efforts.

“I don’t know whether or not the operators that were planning for the possibility of adult use really have the gunpowder at this point to plan for two years from now, four years from now or even further,” said Daniel Sparks, a Florida-based consultant.

And after the costly loss of Amendment 3, there are simply not that many states with a ballot-initiative process that haven’t already legalized marijuana.

Meanwhile, lawmakers in states such as Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have shown that they simply don’t support adult-use legalization.

Where marijuana is legal in the United States

D.C. has a marijuana problem

Such developments mean the stage is shifting from the states to Washington, D.C., where Republicans will control the White House and likely both chambers of Congress come January.

The outlook for federal marijuana reform won’t come into focus until the Trump transition team makes key decisions, such as who might serve as the next attorney general and overseer of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.

Until then, cannabis issues are likely to take a back seat, observers and lobbyists told MJBizDaily on Wednesday.

One source for the industry’s struggle is cultural: There are too many people in D.C. smoking too much weed outdoors for some federal lawmakers’ liking.

Similar complaints seemed to weigh on Florida voters’ minds.

Among conservative members of Congress, “one of their complaints is … the smell of cannabis everywhere,” Shanita Penny, co-executive director of the Coalition for Cannabis Policy, Education and Reform (CPEAR), said during MJBizDaily’s webinar.

And some of those same lawmakers hail from states where voters have rejected marijuana.

Neither spells good news for reform’s prospects.

“Congress is going to say, ‘Hey, there have been a ton of voters across the country now that have said, ‘No, we don’t want the expansion of these markets,’” Penny added.

“I don’t anticipate any movement on SAFE Banking.”

New messaging required – and unity with hemp

Advocates agree that quality-of-life complaints need to be addressed as the industry cobbles together a new, more effective message.

Muddying the message is the ongoing squabble between the regulated marijuana industry and intoxicating hemp operators.

Marijuana advocates in Washington, D.C., openly pushed to close the so-called Farm Bill loophole, with some supporters backing a proposed Farm Bill amendment from U.S. Rep Mary Miller that would have banned hemp derived THC outright.

The draft Farm Bill has so far gone nowhere, but hemp interests might have returned the favor with their support for DeSantis’ anti-marijuana campaign in Florida.

The hemp-marijuana rift might need to be bridged before any progress is made.

“The hemp industry, the cannabis industry, we are divided,” Culver said. “And Congress, as a result, is divided on this as well.

“Divided governments don’t get anything done – and divided industries don’t, either.”

Chris Roberts can be reached at chris.roberts@mjbizdaily.com.