MJBizCon panelists issue cannabis industry predictions for 2025

LAS VEGAS – Hearings to reschedule marijuana began only this week, but the cannabis industry should look for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration to reclassify the plant in 2025.

That’s the prediction that MJBizDaily political reporter Chris Roberts made Wednesday during the annual “State of the Industry” general session at MJBizCon, the world’s largest B2B cannabis industry event.

“I think rescheduling does happen – I think it happens sometime in 2025,” Roberts said on stage at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

Moving marijuana from Schedule 1 of the Controlled Substances Act – a category reserved for substances with no accepted medical use and high potential for abuse – to Schedule 3 would exempt regulated cannabis operators from the burdensome Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code.

According to the Washington, D.C.-based Marijuana Policy Project, being unable to deduct standard business expenses under Section 280E means the effective tax rate for many licensed marijuana operators is 70%; conversely, the corporate tax rate for mainstream businesses is 21%.

“You’re all going to save a lot of money on your taxes, but exactly when, we still don’t know,” Roberts said Wednesday.

Continued growth in Florida and Ohio

Marcia Pledger, a veteran business journalist and the director for the Florida chapter of Minorities for Medical Marijuana, told “State of the Industry” attendees that she anticipates Ohio’s fledgling adult-use cannabis market to triple in size over the next three years.

“It will triple in terms of dispensaries – from more than 100 to more than 300,” she said of the Ohio market, which launched Aug. 6.

“Also, cultivators are expected to grow from only 37 to 100 in the next three years.”

Pledger also believes many of the Ohio municipalities that initially banned plant-touching companies from operating within their borders will have a change of heart once they see the tax revenue and other benefits pouring into neighboring economies.

Meanwhile, Pledger added that Florida is ready to “come back, big time,” after the state’s adult-use ballot measure, Amendment 3, failed on Election Day.

“Florida is the nation’s largest market in terms of medical – there are 880,000 people in the medical program already,” she said.

“It’s No. 3 in terms of revenue – second only to California and Michigan – so Florida is going to be OK.”

Consumption lounges take off

After years of trying to launch a successful consumption-lounge model, cannabis hospitality will finally hit its stride in 2025, predicts MJBizDaily reporter Chris Casacchia, who covers marijuana retail and brands.

“We’re going to see some significant movement and growth in markets across the United States for consumption spaces – especially here in Vegas,” Casacchia said.

“There’s probably at least a dozen in the pipeline here in Nevada,” he said, adding that lawmakers in California and Massachusetts made moves in the past year or so to create regulations that would help consumption venues succeed – although only California was successful.

“It’s going to provide huge allowances for consumption and microbusinesses in California to sell drinks, food, wholesaling, music and events for those in the consumption space,” he said.

Saying that consumption lounges could be “the next iteration of retail,” Casacchia pointed out that such moves are specific to state-regulated markets because marijuana remains illegal at the federal level.

“Obviously, New York wants to get into consumption spaces pretty quickly,” he said.

“You’re probably going to see some of those conversations start again, so I definitely see some expansion on the horizon for consumption lounges in 2025.”

More information about MJBizCon is available here.

Kate Lavin can be reached at kate.lavin@mjbizdaily.com.